23 Απριλίου 2024

Why Bitcoin Cannot Continue the Race to New, Much Higher Prices – Has the Bear market begun?

Why Bitcoin Cannot Continue the Race to New, Much Higher Prices – Has the Bear market begun?

Bitcoin maxis now say that when a new all-time high (ATH) is reached, it tends to continue rising for a significant period, creating a sense of euphoria and expectations of even higher prices, such as $100,000.

While this has been true in the past, it may not be the case today.

In 2017, when Bitcoin experienced a similar parabolic run with consecutive ATHs, few people knew about it. It was relatively unknown to the majority of the world. When something is small and plays on an international scale, it can experience such a rapid rise, regardless of whether it “deserves” it – because, as I have often said, Bitcoin is a useless product. In 2023, we know that no one uses it anywhere (except for speculation and gambling).

The next major peak, in 2021, also significantly exceeded the previous ATH of 2017. This was made possible by the bitcoiners who, in the intervening period, built an extremely successful promotional campaign for Bitcoin, with catchy slogans and phrases that attracted many people to learn about and invest in Bitcoin. Remember the successful advertising campaign they built with slogans like “Soon Lambo”, “Have Fun Staying Poor” (HFSP), “inevitable”, “Bitcoin fix this”, “laser eyes”, etc.

During this period, from 2020 to 2021, thanks to the successful international marketing campaign by the bitcoiners, the whole world learned about Bitcoin. A portion of them bought it, which led to the new ATH of $69K in 2021, which was surpassed a few days ago when it reached $73K.

However, this new ATH of $73K cannot continue with the same frenzied upward trend as in the past. Why? Because in the past, Bitcoin was not well-known, and as a “shallow” product that was played internationally, it could experience such a rapid rise. The ATH of 2021 was the result of an extremely successful promotional campaign by the bitcoiners, which made Bitcoin known to the whole world.

When the whole world knows about it, there is no longer the audience that will drive it much higher, because those who liked it, already bought it. How was the new ATH achieved then? Because spot Bitcoin ETFs were allowed, which gave the opportunity to a portion of the world (internationally) who did not want to invest in Bitcoin itself because they were afraid of hacks in cryptocurrency exchanges, or for any other reason, they were given the opportunity to do so indirectly, through ETFs. However, this audience was also satisfied and served by the recent rise, which ultimately led to a new ATH.

Today, everyone knows about Bitcoin, and anyone who likes it already had the opportunity to acquire it either directly or indirectly. Those who have not bought it to this day are those who have not been convinced by it, and obviously, those who have not been convinced are not going to buy it at ATH prices. Therefore, today, there is no longer the audience to push Bitcoin to even higher prices, significantly higher than those it recently reached.

I was discussing the bitcoin issue with bitcoiners, when Bitcoin was falling sharply (in 2022), and because the overall mood was very negative, they said that it was their mistake that in the previous bullish phase, they focused so much on the price of Bitcoin, and instead, they did not focus on its usefulness, to convince the world that it is useful. It took a relatively short time to prove that the bitcoiners were lying in their self-criticism at the time, because now that Bitcoin has recovered and recently reached a new ATH, if you listen to them, they are only concerned with the price, and the scenarios for target prices have gone wild… Come on, after that, don’t say it’s a Ponzi scheme, no matter how good your intentions are, you can’t, because it’s now proven that bitcoiners are always concerned with the price of Bitcoin, seeking for greater fools to keep their Ponzi alive.

“The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets” – that’s how the successful investors and speculators act, and the opposite, the unsuccessful ones.
See the two graphs below …

The total capitalization of all cryptos has formed a peak after the recent run, but this peak is lower than the peak of 2021 (which is also the ATH), plus, now with the retreat that has started a few days ago, it is lower than the first peak of 2021 (in 2021 there were two major peaks). This is a very bearish formation.
Further, the Greed and Fear graph (for all cryptos) is at very high levels of greed, which are also seen at the peaks.
You can see the data with your own eyes, at coinmarketcap.
Things are not looking good for Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies as well. Hard times ahead.

… and it seems that Bitcoin turned to (a fresh) bear market …

Panayotis Sofianopoulos
21.03.2024

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Bitcoin will reach $1 million!?

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