19 Σεπτεμβρίου 2018

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On investments field, there are no experts!

On investments field, there are no experts!

In the field of economics and investments, people often pay attention to Experts.

Those Experts influence the public opinion ; usually they are economists, academics, managers of big companies, executives etc.

But in field of economics and investments, there are no experts, as no one can make always accurate predictions concerning the future. Actually the rule is that they fail. Of course every expert makes some hypothesis and argues on this.  But generally speaking and as a rule, these experts fail on their predictions, the most of the times.

Why? Because the world is very complicated and chaotic. So basically is unpredictable.

Lets take an example on visualization about the future:  back in 2000, the late David Bowie, gave an interview and he spoke about internet. Bowie was very optimistic about internet, as you can see on the video below:

 


But a nobelist on Economics, the big and famous, Paul Krugman, also spoke about internet at 1998, where he compared the Internet to a fax machine. Here’s the quote:

«The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.«

So in the area of predicting the future that is crucial on investments (in investment field, we are trying to anticipate correctly the future and if we make it, we succeed, otherwise we lose), a popstar singer was much accurate and successful than a strong scientific mind like a nobel laureate is.

The Lesson: We should not pay attention to experts opinions, in the field of investments

The great news are that we don’t need to predict the future, we can just follow it. And it’s very easy! Learn how to do it, at HERETIC INVESTOR.

May also interests you (same topic / investments):

The Broken Watch…

 

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